November 27, 2024

• 

Markets in South Korea enjoyed short-term post-election rallies in past presidential elections, but a similar uptick looks unlikely this time, mainly because of the war in Ukraine, but also because campaign pledges have offered little to buoy investors.

This would be a return to form for the democratic era.

In the six months after current President Moon Jae-in was sworn in, the Kospi rose 11.2 percent to 2,542.95 points.

But the previous four presidents all saw the Kospi decline in their first six months in office.

“Aside from inconclusive data, stocks are driven by exports, earnings and inflation -- or monetary policies that affect the rising prices,” said Jeong Yong-teak, chief economist at IBK Securities. “So it’s inflation woes and rate hike worries we need to take into account.”

Campaign pledges have had little impact on the market this year, as the two main candidates’ plans did not include drastic changes for businesses or deregulatory moves that would buoy market expectations. The familiar chaebol reform pledges disappeared, and the two even shared similar agenda, which left little room for drastic market swings to take place during the campaign and probably following the election, Jeong added.

The candidates from the ruling Democratic Party and main opposition People Power Party all vowed to reduce stock trading costs. Lee Jae-myung, the ruling party frontrunner, promised to cut transaction taxes, while opposition leader Yoon Suk-yeol pledged to scrap capital gains taxes.

Under the plan brought by the Moon administration, a tax of up to 25 percent will be imposed on annual capital gains exceeding 50 million won, starting in 2023.

They also assured retail investors of a more transparent capital market, where financial wrongdoing against minority shareholders would be punished, but neither presented concrete plans to do so.

The election was held at a time when the market has been falling from its peak of 3,305.21 points on July 6.

The Kospi, which started off the year at 2,988.77 points, dropped further to 2,622.40 points Tuesday, down for the third straight day. Foreign selling led the dip, as the deepening geopolitical unrest pushed up oil, gas and wheat prices globally. The main board has already seen earnings whipsaw over a potential rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, experts said.

“The rate hike worries are already factored in. It’s the Ukraine fears, the rising commodity prices dragging down the index. Inflation means slow global economic growth, which is bad for export-driven countries like us,” said Seo Sang-young, head of media contents department at Mirae Asset Securities.

Investors are hedging against the losses or potentially disappointing earnings and their return hinges on easing inflation worries, Seo added, referring to deepening Western sanctions against Russia over Ukraine amid supply shortage concerns.

Russia warned that a Western ban on Russian oil imports could double the oil price and shut down Moscow’s main gas pipeline to Germany. Russia is the world’s second-biggest oil producer behind the US, and supplies Europe with about 35 percent of natural gas it needs.

Russia, also the world’s largest producer of fertilizers, coal, steel, nickel and palladium, had said it could suspend its fertilizer exports. The crisis is putting strain on global wheat supplies, too. Russia and Ukraine account for about 29 percent of global wheat exports.

Hwang Sei-woon, a senior research fellow at the Korea Capital Market Institute, said unless interventions bring meaningful progress on the conflict, investors would see persistent market swings here. Recovery from war-triggered supply and economic disruptions could take some time, maybe months, not years, he added.

“There is little that could be done inside to prop up a sliding Kospi,” Hwang said, dismissing the possibility altogether that the index could pick up upward momentum in a post-election rally, as suggested by some betting on an index rise following the March 9 presidential election.

By Choi Si-young (siyoungchoi@heraldcorp.com)